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Beat the Street, Get Beat Up 👊📉

April 30, 2025

Teradyne $TER crushed expectations with another double beat this quarter.

They reported revenues of $699 million and EPS of $0.75, comfortably above Wall Street estimates.

But instead of celebrating, investors hit the sell button. 

The stock dropped over 5% intraday, continuing a painful trend: Teradyne has been punished after 8 of its last 9 earnings reports.

That’s not a fluke... It’s a pattern.

Despite consistent performance, the market keeps fading the stock. 

Whether it’s concerns over cyclicality in the semiconductor space, cautious guidance, or a lack of enthusiasm for old-school chip equipment names, the stock can’t catch a break.

This kind of reaction reminds us: earnings aren’t just about the numbers. 

They’re about the market's reaction, and nobody is buying Teradyne for its earnings reports. 

They haven't for years!

So what else did we learn from yesterday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details.

Here are the latest earnings reports from the S&P 500 👇 

*Click the image to enlarge it

SBA...

Beat & Bleed 🩸

April 29, 2025

Roper Technologies $ROP is out with another double beat, but you wouldn’t know it if you looked at the stock.

The industrial tech firm topped revenue and EPS expectations again, continuing its track record of solid execution. 

Revenue hit $1.88 billion, and EPS reached $4.78, both above consensus. 

On paper, this was a textbook beat...

But the market response? Brutal. 

Shares fell over 1%, extending a trend of negative earnings reactions. The stock has been punished after 6 of its last 7 earnings reports.

At this point, it’s not about the numbers—it’s about expectations

Investors seem to be pricing in perfection, and anything less—even a clean beat—is getting sold. 

Whether it’s valuation concerns, slowing organic growth, or just poor sentiment, the message is clear: Wall Street isn’t buying the story, no matter how consistent it looks.

This is textbook earnings punishment.

So what else did we learn from yesterday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details.

Here are the latest earnings reports from the S&P 500 👇 

*...

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[Gold Rush] Gold’s Getting Crowded 🪙

April 28, 2025

Do you remember when The Economist magazine cover had a rocket ship covered in United States dollars last year?

They said the United States was "The envy of the world."

It was so cringe...

The dollar got blasted over the next several months, and the U.S. stock market had its worst quarter in decades relative to the rest of the world.

Like any other type of market analysis, fading magazine covers is more of an art than a science.

We don't want to fade a trend just because there's a magazine cover.

The dollar was extremely overbought in the prior example, and the COT positioning tipped us off to a potential move in the opposite direction.

We waited for the market to confirm our bias, managed our risk, and made a ton of money.

Fast forward to today, and the latest Barron's magazine cover highlighted a stack of Gold bars and said:

"Investors are loading up on the metal as a haven in chaotic times. How long can it last?"

 

This comes as Gold futures are running into...