Everyone keeps assuming the Fed is done. That rates peaked in 2023. That the next move is down. That the cycle has run its course and we’re heading back to easy money.
But here’s the thing: the market says otherwise.
The 30-year yield has been grinding higher for most of 2025—not violently, not emotionally, just relentlessly.
Quiet pressure. And when you see that kind of persistent strength at the long end, while the Fed Funds rate sits frozen? That’s not noise. That’s not a shrug. That’s a message.
And this pattern? We’ve seen it before.
In 2018, the Fed hiked into weakness. The 30-year had already peaked, already started to roll over. The bond market was waving red flags. Powell didn’t listen. They pushed one step too far, broke the system, and were forced to reverse course.
The market knew first. The Fed caught up too late.
Then in 2024, it happened again—only flipped.
The Fed started cutting. But the 30-year? It didn’t follow. It rose. Why? Because that cut wasn’t about collapsing demand. It was...