My Core Market Model has climbed to 3 — its highest reading since November 2024.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The candlesticks in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
The black line in the bottom panel shows the Core Market Model — a composite of breadth, liquidity, and sentiment.
The Takeaway: At 3, the Core Market Model is sending a clear message: internals are strong and strengthening.
When these inputs align, trend conditions tend to improve — and that’s what we’re seeing now.
Two weeks ago, the model flipped positive. Since then, it’s gained momentum — moving firmly into what I call the Constructive zone.
That’s where markets tend to behave better: pullbacks get shallower, trends persist, and volatility fades.
This isn’t guesswork. Over two decades of data, the Constructive zone has delivered the most reliable forward returns — with tighter drawdowns and less noise.
We’re not stretched. We’re supported. That’s what matters....
We’ve already seen 437 days where the S&P 500 moved ±1% in the 2020s — and the decade’s only halfway done.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The blue bars is theS&P 500 ±1% days by decade.
The gray bar is the average S&P 500 ±1% days by decade.
The red bar is the S&P 500 ±1% days in the 2020s.
The Takeaway:
To put that in perspective, the average full decade — from the 1950s through to the 2010s — logged around 504 of these big-swing days. We’re already at 437, and there’s still nearly five years to go.
At this pace, the 2020s are set to become the most volatile decade in modern market history.
Not because of one-off shocks or extreme crashes — but because of the sheer frequency of large daily moves.
Historically, that kind of volatility hasn’t ended well.
More swings usually mean more stress.
But the 2020s? So far, they’re bucking that trend.
