Today's number is... 157.93

That’s the new all-time high for my custom Equal-Weight Bellwether Stock Index.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The black line shows our custom Equal-Weight Bellwether Stock Index. It includes major cross-sector leaders, such as Alcoa, Apple, AMD, Amazon, Boeing, Caterpillar, Disney, FedEx, General Electric, General Motors, Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, McDonald’s, Walmart, and Exxon Mobil.

The Takeaway: This index tracks the most important stocks in the market.

These are companies that sit at the center of the US economy.

From tech and energy to healthcare and financials, each name carries equal weight.

No single stock dominates.

It’s a clean read on real leadership.

And these names are the generals.

When they move together, they reflect investor confidence and broad market appetite for risk.

New highs in this group usually signal that the backdrop is strengthening, not weakening.

The index just broke out of its latest base and closed at a fresh high.

It’s been stair-stepping...

Today's number is... 38

38 is how many Golden Crosses — where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day — have triggered in the S&P 500 since 1950. 

The most recent signal was just yesterday.

Here’s the chart and stats table:

Let's break down what the chart and table show:

• The blue and red lines are the 50-day and 200-day moving averages of the S&P 500 Index.
• The gray lines mark each Golden Cross in the S&P 500 since 1950.
• The table displays the average forward returns following all 38 Golden Crosses over the past 75 years. 

The Takeaway: Golden Crosses are a bullish tailwind, not a contrarian fade.

The signal just triggered — not in fear, but in strength. Price is near all-time highs.

They don’t guarantee gains, but they tip the odds meaningfully in favor of higher prices.

Across all 38 signals, the median one-year return is +13.0%, with 81% of outcomes finishing in the green. 

Average returns build steadily over time: 1.2% after 21 days...

Today's number is... 6

We’re 6 months into 2025, and the S&P 500 just closed at an all-time high… up 5.49% YTD.

But under the surface, it’s a very different story.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• Each bubble represents a stock in the S&P 500, plotted by 2025 Year-To-Date performance (y-axis).
• Green bubbles = gain in 2025.
• Red bubbles  = loss in 2025.
• Bubble size = market cap.
• Stocks are grouped by sector (x-axis).

The Takeaway: At the halfway mark, the surface looks strong, but the internals tell a different story. 

Just 222 stocks in the S&P 500 have outperformed the index so far in 2025. That means 281 are lagging behind. 

The average stock is up only 3.95%, well below the index itself. 

This gap highlights narrow leadership, with a small group of large-cap winners doing most of the heavy lifting.

Industrials are packed with winners, led by names like HWM, which is up more than 60% this year. 

In Technology, WDC is one...