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Recent Articles

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Bad Breadth

January 10, 2025

The market of stocks has been a chop fest for the past month, prompting me to keep a close eye on market internals.

While trends in the major indexes remain unaffected, short-term weakness has been steadily creeping in beneath the surface.

The average 52-week drawdown of S&P 500 stocks has reached -18.2%. This means the average stock is experiencing its sharpest decline in over a year.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

The Big Level for Banks

January 9, 2025

While the uptrends in the major indexes are holding up well, it's been a tale of mixed signals beneath the surface.

Some sectors and groups are showing strength, while others continue to lag behind.

Banks, for that matter, are an important piece of the puzzle. They are the backbone of the financial sector. They are some of the most important businesses for the US and global economy. 

How bank stocks perform gives us a good read on where the broader market is headed.

The SPDR S&P Banks ETF $KBE took a shot at breaking out of this monster base following November’s election. This marks the second attempt at reclaiming its pre-GFC highs in the past few years.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Building or Breaking?

January 8, 2025

In a healthy bull market, you want to see offensive groups performing well. When these groups lack strength, it often signals problems ahead for the broader market.

Homebuilders, one of the most cyclical subsectors within the Consumer Discretionary space, come to mind when discussing this theme. 

They are a reliable gauge of global growth and investor risk appetite.

Historically, when these stocks trend higher, it reflects an environment conducive to risk-seeking behavior. On the flip side, sustained selling pressure on them tends to indicate a more cautious market stance.

When we overlay the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF $XHB with the S&P 500 $SPY, they typically follow the same path.